1. Raul Adalberto de Campos Latin America
Investor Relations Executive Manager Perspectives and
April, 2007 Opportunities
2. INVESTMENT GRADE S&P AND MOODY’S
PETROBRAS IS A MARKET ORIENTED AND PROFIT DRIVEN ENTERPRISE…
81,9
Top ADR: turnover (traded volume) in
TOP NYSE 2006 American Depositary
60,6
VOLUME 53,2 Receipts (US$ billion)
38,6
ADR 28,5 26,3 25,0 22,6
IN NYSE
Petrobras* BP Nokia America BHP Cemex Total RD Shell*
Movil* Billiton
PETROBRAS IS CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF BRAZIL BUT.........
PETROBRAS COMPLIES WITH ALL SARBANES-OXLEY PROVISIONS
Most of NOC´S PETROBRAS –
• Control over their home market • Exposed to Competition
• Produce in home country only • Operates internationally
• Are endowed with prodigious • Develops and applies advanced technologies
quantities of “easy” oil • Engage in joint-ventures
• Little technological exchange • Highly committed with corporate governance rules
3. Integration of the Company´s Activities
Petrochemical Imported Imported Oil
Plants H - Bio
Oil Products
Biodiesel Oil Products
Throughput
Brazilian Oil sold in Brazil
in Brazil
Production
Ethanol
International Oil International International
Production Refining Sales
Domestic
Natural Gas
Other
Production Energy
Renewables
Imported Gas Infrastructure
Industry
4. PRODUCTION X DEMAND X REFINING CAPACITY: REACHING SELF-SUFFICIENCY
Production/ 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 2011F
Consumption
(%) 3,0 30,5 28,4 32,2 19,5 16,7 56,2 55,3 49,3 70,4 97,6 112,1
Brazil: first major market to shift
from import dependency to self
sufficiency since first oil from
Proj.
2500 North Sea in 1971 began to shift
european balance
2000 Production
THOUSAND BPD
Consumption
1500
Refining
1000
500
0
1954 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2011
5. PETROBRAS Investment Plan 2007-2011
US$ 87.1 billion
56%
49,3
• Heavy oil production technology
development will expand LA reserve
growth possibilities;
• Successful Doha Round Negotiations
are essential to permit greater
trade of agricultural commodities and
1,8
2,3 increase agricultural productivity
23,0
3,3
3% 7,5 considering comparative advantages;
26%
3% 4% • Technological breakthroughs in
9% enzyme technology for the use of
Lignocelluloses biomass and BTL;
Upstream Downstream G&E
• Further progress in regional
Petrochemical Distribution Corporate
integration.
Note: Includes International area
6. Business Plan 2007-2011 - Total Production – Oil, NGL’s and Natural Gas
7.5% p.a. 4,556
Thousand boed
278
Investment in E&P of
7.8% p.a. 742
US$ 49.3 billion in 3,493
2007-2011 • Heavy8oil production technology
1 5
2,403
development will expand LA 4
383 72
reserve
2,217 growth5 possibilities;
5 1
2.036
, 2,020 101
85 94
96
133 • Successful Doha Round Negotiations
161 168
163 289 are essential to permit greater
250 265
274 trade of agricultural commodities and 2. 812
increase agricultural productivity
2. 374
1.540 1. 493 1.684
1. 880 considering comparative advantages;
• Technological breakthroughs in
enzyme technology for the use of
2003 2004 2005 Target a
M et 2006 Lignocelluloses biomass e 2015BTL;
Targete2011
M ta M and
Forecast t a
2011 2015
Ól e o + L G NBrazils i l
Oil + NGL B r a • Further progress in regional
G ás N a t u r a l Brazil i l
Natural Gas B r a s
Ól e o + L G NInternationalo n a l
Oil + NGL I n t e r n a c i
integration.
G ás N a t u r a l Natural a c i o n a l
International I n t e r n Gas
7. Latin American Share of Oil World Reserves
Latin American oil reserves are becoming increasingly important
1984 1994 2004
R/P* = 26.77 R/P* = 41.78 R/P* = 41.84
4.8% 8.0% 8.5%
5.0%
3.8% 3.5%
8.8% 5.1%
13.4%
9.4%
6.4%
7.6% 56.5% 65.1% 61.8%
7.9% 11.7%
12.7%
Total Total Total
762 billion barrels 1,017 billion barrels 1,194 billion barrels
Middle Orient Europe & Eurasia Africa
North America Pacific Asia Latin America
In 20 years, Latin America proven reserves increased from 36.6 billion barrels (1984) to 103 billion.
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy * Reserves/Production Latin America (years)
7
8. Net Oil and Oil Products Availability (excluding OPEC countries)
Ability to produce non-conventional heavy oil will play
Latin America (including Venezuela) an increasing role in LA
Mbpd
Russia
Asia
United States
OECD(- Mexico)
Projected growth in oil
production and
demand suggests
balance and
independence of
supply from politically
unstable regions
Source: Internacional Energy Agency Reference Scenario
8
9. Gas Rich Region with limited infrastructure
Proven Reserves as of January 1, 2005
4.3 T m3
Ample gas reserves will allow for: 0.55 T m3
151.9 Tcf
19.4 Tcf
::: Regional growth in consumption 0.41 T m3
substituting some demand for oil 14.5 Tcf
Venezuela
Trinidad
::: Higher exports of liquids Mexico
0.33 T m3 Brazil
11.7 Tcf
Perú 0.31 T m3
10.9 Tcf
But:
::: Will require increasing energy 2005 Gas Bolivia 0.50 T m3
Proven Reserves 26.1 Tcf 17.7Tcf
integration and World: 0.74 T m3
::: Substantial investments in 179,8 T m3 / 6,350 Tcf
South and Central America: Argentina
infrastructure covering great 7,02 T m3 / 247,9 Tcf
distances and environmentally
sensitive regions
Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
9
10. Relative importance of oil sector varies widely among the main players in
the region affecting legislation, pricing and curbing integration prospects
106%
Consumption of oil as % of Production 2005
80%
58%
53%
42%
27%
18% 15%
Brazil Bolivia Oil Argentina Mexico Colombia Ecuador Venezuela Bolivia Gas
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006; EIA; INE/BO; Superintendence de Hidrocarburos de Bolivia
10
11. International prices affect each country's
trade balance differently
% Exports of oil as % of total Goods
87 Exports 2005 (in US$)
%
60
%
36
%
26 %
15 %
11
9%
7%
Venezuela Ecuador Bolívia (gas) Colômbia México Bolívia (oil) Argentina Brasil
Source: BP Review 2006; EIA; INE/BO
11
12. Regulatory Challenges – Recent Trends
• Countries that have recently changed
or have manifested a desire to change
legislation towards higher Government
Participation in production and
revenues: Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia
• Countries that are in the process of
liberalizing legislation to encourage
foreign participation: Colombia & Peru
• Countries that have consolidated
reforms: Argentina (w/ price controls) &
Brazil (w/o price controls);
• Mexico remains the most closed oil
economy but there are indications that a
move towards opening to investment is
possible.
12
13. Latin America offers excellent resources to expand agricultural production
More than 3 times the average world per capita water availability
Higher Potable Water availability per capita
24,973
11,196
7,055
4,050
3,966
Africa Latin America Asia OCDE World
Availability per capita (m3/year)
Nearly half world sugar cane production Nearly 1/3 world main oil seed production
Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons
1,328
359
Sugar cane production Soybeans, Groundnuts, Sunflower,
631 Rape Seed, Cotton Seed
95
World South and Central America World South and Central America
and Caribbean and Caribbean
13
14. Bio-fuel usage in OECD Countries will benefit LA
Global warming, energy security
and/or cost effectiveness are
encouraging renewable fuels with two important
initiatives: (i) ethanol and (ii) biodiesel. Both can be
produced and consumed in Latin America advantageously.
Production of biofuels in LA will also contribute to displace
production of liquids increasing export availability.
14
15. Ethanol Production
Program went through four phases as a result of prices,
legislation, consumer preferences and technology
18.000
Anhydrous Hydrated Total 2006/07
Estimates
Growth:
14.000
sales of
ethanol Retrench:
powered Increase in
thousand (m³/ton)
10.000 cars legal 2006/07
Stagnation: Estimates
discredit; ethanol in Current
low HP gasohol phase: 2006/07
raised to Growth in
Estimates
6.000 vehicles;
24% sales of flex
preference for
fule vehicles
sugar;
2.000 imported
automobiles
0 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07
Crop Year
16. Brazil is the 1st country to reap benefits from Ethanol
Original drivers were energy security and CNG
economic attractiveness;
ETHANOL
Today environmental benefits are also a GASOLINE
consideration.
160000
Fuel demand for Otto Cycle
140000
Vehicles
120000
10000
80000
60000
40000 Accumulated effective
20000
economy:
1 Billion boe ~US$ 52 bi
1000 BEP
Source: MME, BEN 2006
0
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
In this period, ethanol utilization avoided 644 million tons CO2 emissions
16
17. Ethanol motivated and boosted greater land productivity
Brazillian Productivity MTper Ha
+ 57%
72,8
66,6 67,6
63,2 61,5
57,0
46,5
-14% +11%
World Average Productivity + 22%
64,2 65,6
61,6 62,8
1975
53,8 1980
55,3
1985
58,5 1990 1995 2000 2005
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
18. ETHANOL DISTRIBUTION
INTERSTATE TRADE REPRESENTS 33% OF CONSUMPTION
DISTRIBUTION AND REGIONALIZATION
33% OF PRODUCTION EXPORTED FROM
PRODUCING TO CONSUMING STATES
PRODUCING STATES
CONSUMING STATES
Importing States
Exporting States 21 Importes States 6 Self-Suficient States
19. Ethanol Logistics System
Petrobras in 2006 received the American Society of Mechanical Engineers
award for technological advances in pipeline technology
Ethanol collection,
storage and
distribution centers
are spread out
Large scale marine
terminals improve through producing
efficiency and consuming
regions
Large storage capacity
necessary to regulate
supply Primary Base
Secondary Base
Pipelines reduce
Collection Centers
transport costs; improve Inland Navigation
energy efficiency Railways
Road
Multi product pipelines
20. Industrial Plants
3 Projects Being Implemented
But the main hurdles
Capacity: 171 thousand m3/year and challenges are: CE
Investments: ~ US$ 60 million • Heavy oil production technology
development will expand LA reserve
Inputs growth possibilities;
Family Agriculture: castor, cotton, and palm.• Successful Doha Round Negotiations
Complementary: soy. are essential to permit greater
BA
trade of agricultural commodities and
increase agricultural productivity
Jobs Generations:
considering comparative advantages;
Construction: 1,200 direct and 400 indirect
Operation: 105 direct • Technological breakthroughs inMontes
MG
Raw material production:70,000 families enzyme technology for the use Claros
of
Lignocelluloses biomass and BTL;
Start up: 4 Q/2007 semi-arid region
• Further progress in regional
integration.
All Petrobras Biodiesel has Social Fuel Seal
21. Transport facilities are fully integrated with refineries
and blenders
Ethanol
t
duc MARITIME
i pro ne TRANSPORT
ult eli
M ip
p
Ethanol Ethanol
REFINARY
TERMINAL REFINARY
Mu MARITIME
ltip
Eth rod TRANSPORT
ano uct
l an pip
d g elin
aso es
hol
MARITIME
SERVICE STATIONS TERMINAL
Ethanol
Distribuition
bases
Gasoline
Ethanol
22. Brazilian New Car Sales by Fuel
1.600
ETHANOL GASOHOL FLEX - FUEL
Number of Vehiclesx 1.000
1.200
800
400
0
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Year
23. Global ethanol market totals 46.5 Billion Liters
Fuel Ethanol represents 30.6 Billion Liters, 67% of total ethanol production
Raw Material Energy output / energy input
Today global ethanol consumption is 2,6% of gasoline fuel market
Increasing ethanol to 10% of gasoline will represent 118 Billion Liters
Tomorrow: Lignocelluloses Biomass technology will double
ethanol per ha. yield
Molasses yields
only 85 L of
ethanol,
1 metric ton of
sugar cane But
Cane bagasse
yields 185 L of
ethanol
Base calculation
23
24. Ethanol Exportation in Brazil - Future
Includes 800 Km
800 km Senador Canedo exclusive ethanol
Terminal pipeline
Tietê River
(Waterway Ribeirão Preto
Export Capacity 18 Millions Kl/year
) Collect Center
Conchas
200 km
River
Terminal
Regions:
90
Piracicaba Paulínia Guararema Rio de Janeiro
km
(REFINERY)
150 km Taubaté City 370 km
S.J.Rio Preto Terminal (REFINERY)
Bauru
Araçatuba
MS
90 km
MT
15km
São Sebastião Ilha D’Água
Future Marine Terminal Marine Terminal
Pipelines
Existing 4 Millons Kl/ano 4 Millons Kl/ano
Pipelines 300,000 dwt 130,000 dwt
25. TIETÊ – PARANÁ INLAND WATERWAY
INVESTMENTS: US$ 160 M Petrobras is also integrating
(2008 a 2010) waterways with pipelines
REPLAN
REPAR 4 or 5 river terminals
and a 90km pipeline
Possible integration
with REPAR-Cuiaba
pipeline
26. H-BIO and BIODIESEL – Complementary Processes
Complementary and not competitive processes
But the main hurdles
and challenges are:
• Heavy oil production technology
development will expand LA reserve
growth possibilities;
• Successful Doha Round Negotiations
are essential to permit greater
trade of agricultural commodities and
increase agricultural productivity
considering comparative advantages;
• Technological breakthroughs in
enzyme technology for the use of
Lignocelluloses biomass and BTL;
• Further progress in regional
integration.
27. H-BIO Process in Refinery
VEGETABLE OTHER
DIESEL DD FRACTIONS
OIL ATMOSPHERIC OIL
OF DIESEL
DISTILLATION
atmospheric
residue
Existing
HDT
VACUUM Gasoil DIESEL FCC
FCC DIESEL
DISTILLATION
Process
HBIO
Vacuum
Residue
DELAYED DIESEL COKE
COKING
28. Potential Capacity of H-BIO
Short Term Medium Term Long Term
2007 2008 2011
Refineries 4 5 10
Vegetable Oil 1,050,000
Consumption
256,000 cu.m/year 425,000 cu.m/year
cu.m/year
Equivalent
Volume of 15% 25% n/a
Diesel Imports
29. H-BIO
• HBIO is a process of:
But the main hurdles
and challenges are:
– Oil refining that utilizes vegetable oils as raw
material in order to obtain diesel oil production technology
• Heavy oil
development will expand LA reserve
growth possibilities;
– Hydrogenation of a blend of diesel and vegetable
• Successful Doha Round Negotiations
oils are essential to permit greater
trade of agricultural commodities and
Castor-Oil Plant Sunflower Soy increase Oil Palm
African agricultural productivity
Cotton
considering comparative advantages;
• Technological breakthroughs in
enzyme technology for the use of
Lignocelluloses biomass and BTL;
• Further progress in regional
integration.
30. Principal Conclusions, Hurdles and Challenges
• Latin America is in a privileged
position regarding oil reserves, and But the main hurdles
energy independence; and challenges are:
• Use of natural gas prospects are • Heavy oil production technology
encouraging and should contribute development will expand LA reserve
to increase liquid fossil fuel exports growth possibilities;
availability but integration and • Successful Doha Round Negotiations
financial issues are a main are essential to permit greater
concern; trade of agricultural commodities and
• Land, water and human resource increase agricultural productivity
availability and biodiversity place considering comparative advantages;
Central and South America and • Technological breakthroughs in
Caribbean in a privileged position to enzyme technology for the use of
use and supply OECD countries Lignocelluloses biomass and BTL;
with renewable fuels, and also
further liberating liquid fossil fuels • Further progress in regional
for export. integration.